Politics

Elections, policy, and government

217 open forecasts

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Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?

No 78%
Yes 22%
$216K Vol.
Polymarket

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 31 28% Yes No
July 17 16% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$69K Vol.
Polymarket

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Dilution of Iran's Uranium 27% Yes No
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) 26% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$330K Vol.
Polymarket

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

No 60%
Yes 40%
$376K Vol.
Polymarket

Next Senate Majority Leader?

John Thune 32% Yes No
Chuck Schumer 30% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$142K Vol.
Polymarket

Nigerian Presidential Election Winner

Bola Tinubu 61% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+20 more outcomes

$69K Vol.
Polymarket

Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?

No 90%
Yes 10%
$43K Vol.
Polymarket

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon 97% Yes No
Nathalie Arthaud 89% Yes No

+44 more outcomes

$207K Vol.
Polymarket

2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate

Marine Le Pen 94% Yes No
Jordan Bardella 4% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$227K Vol.
Polymarket

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen 31% Yes No
Édouard Philippe 28% Yes No

+34 more outcomes

$112.2M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 2027 30% Yes No
December 31 23% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$19.6M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?

Paramount 82% Yes No
None by June 30, 2027 12% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$1.2M Vol.
Polymarket

Clacton by-election Winner

Nigel Farage 94% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+50 more outcomes

$2.0M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

June 30, 2027 48% Yes No
December 31 22% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$2.8M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Chud the Builder convicted of attempted murder?

No 76%
Yes 24%
$14K Vol.
Polymarket Pop Culture

Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Independent/Technocrat 50% Yes No
PNL 22% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$166K Vol.
Polymarket

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

No 88%
Yes 12%
$1.7M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Other 50% Yes No
Person A 50% Yes No

+57 more outcomes

$33K Vol.
Polymarket

Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?

No 91%
Yes 9%
$91K Vol.
Polymarket

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić 72% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+51 more outcomes

$22K Vol.
Polymarket

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 20% Yes No
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 15% Yes No

+43 more outcomes

$1234.7M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 20% Yes No
Marco Rubio 14% Yes No

+35 more outcomes

$658.3M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 42% Yes No
Marco Rubio 28% Yes No

+33 more outcomes

$672.8M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Democratic 58% Yes No
Republican 40% Yes No
$1.9M Vol.
Polymarket Politics