Open Politics Polymarket

Brazil Presidential Election

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

$90.2M Vol. Closes Oct 4, 2026

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$90.2m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$90.2M Vol.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

40% market probability

40%
Yes 40% +60 / −40 No 60% +40 / −60

Flávio Bolsonaro

29% market probability

29%
Yes 29% +71 / −29 No 71% +29 / −71

Renan Santos

16% market probability

16%
Yes 16% +84 / −16 No 84% +16 / −84

Fernando Haddad

7% market probability

7%
Yes 7% +93 / −7 No 93% +7 / −93

Romeu Zema

3% market probability

3%
Yes 3% +97 / −3 No 97% +3 / −97

Ronaldo Caiado

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Camilo Santana

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Michelle Bolsonaro

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Jair Bolsonaro

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Tereza Cristina

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Geraldo Alckmin

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Aldo Rebelo

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Eduardo Leite

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Helder Barbalho

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Ratinho Júnior

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Eduardo Bolsonaro

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Tarcisio de Freitas

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
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