Open World Polymarket

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Top outcomes

December 31 6%
April 30 0%
March 31 0%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

$7.6M Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

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$7.6m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$7.6M Vol.

December 31

6% market probability

6%
Yes 6% +94 / −6 No 94% +6 / −94

April 30

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

March 31

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
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