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US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Top outcomes

December 31 12%
September 30 6%
April 30 0%
May 31 0%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

$28.4M Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

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$28.4m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$28.4M Vol.

December 31

12% market probability

12%

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0 / 2,000

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September 30

6% market probability

6%

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0 / 2,000

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April 30

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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May 31

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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June 30

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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