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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Top outcomes
December 31, 2027
34%
June 30, 2027
26%
March 31, 2027
19%
December 31
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
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$8.5M Vol.
Closes Jan 1, 2028
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$8.5m Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$8.5M Vol.
December 31, 2027
34% market probability
34%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 34%
+66 / −34
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 66%
+34 / −66
June 30, 2027
26% market probability
26%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 26%
+74 / −26
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 74%
+26 / −74
Explain your Yes on June 30, 2027
Explain your No on June 30, 2027
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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March 31, 2027
19% market probability
19%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 19%
+81 / −19
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 81%
+19 / −81
Explain your Yes on March 31, 2027
Explain your No on March 31, 2027
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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December 31
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on December 31
Explain your No on December 31
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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May 31
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on May 31
Explain your No on May 31
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 31
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on July 31
Explain your No on July 31
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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June 30
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on June 30
Explain your No on June 30
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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April 30
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on April 30
Explain your No on April 30
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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August 31
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on August 31
Explain your No on August 31
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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September 30
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on September 30
Explain your No on September 30
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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