Open Economy Polymarket

Fed rate cut by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

$1.8M Vol. Closes Jun 17, 2026

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

$1.8m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$1.8M Vol.

December Meeting

32% market probability

32%
Yes 32% +68 / −32 No 68% +32 / −68

October Meeting

22% market probability

22%
Yes 22% +78 / −22 No 78% +22 / −78

September Meeting

14% market probability

14%
Yes 14% +86 / −14 No 86% +14 / −86

July Meeting

6% market probability

6%
Yes 6% +94 / −6 No 94% +6 / −94

June Meeting

2% market probability

2%
Yes 2% +98 / −2 No 98% +2 / −98
Log in to place your forecast on this event.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.