Open World Polymarket

US strike on Mexico by...?

Top outcomes

December 31 10%
March 31 0%
January 31 0%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

$3.4M Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

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$3.4m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$3.4M Vol.

December 31

10% market probability

10%

Explain your Yes on December 31 Explain your No on December 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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March 31

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on March 31 Explain your No on March 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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January 31

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on January 31 Explain your No on January 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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