Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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$41.2M Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

Live odds

No 78%

Yes 22%

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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

171 days left

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Market closes Dec 31, 2026

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Yes Market 22% +78 if correct · −22 if wrong No Market 78% +22 if correct · −78 if wrong

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