Open World Polymarket

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Top outcomes

UNRWA 10%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy 8%
Yulia Navalnaya 8%
Pope Leo XIV 5%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

$22.4M Vol. Closes Oct 10, 2026

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$22.4m Vol.

All outcomes

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$22.4M Vol.

UNRWA

10% market probability

10%

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0 / 2,000

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy

8% market probability

8%

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0 / 2,000

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Yulia Navalnaya

8% market probability

8%

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0 / 2,000

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Pope Leo XIV

5% market probability

5%

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0 / 2,000

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Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

4% market probability

4%

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0 / 2,000

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Donald Trump

4% market probability

4%

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0 / 2,000

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International Court of Justice

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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Narendra Modi

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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Julian Assange

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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Greta Thunberg

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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Ahmed al-Sharaa

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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António Guterres

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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Xi Jinping

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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Charlie Kirk

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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Mohammed bin Salman

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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Khaled Mashal

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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Elon Musk

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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Vladimir Putin

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Benjamin Netanyahu

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Public forecast history

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Forecast No Donald Trump · Polymarket 92% · +8/−92

+3 rep if exited now

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