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Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Top outcomes
UNRWA
10%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
8%
Yulia Navalnaya
8%
Pope Leo XIV
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
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$22.4M Vol.
Closes Oct 10, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$22.4m Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$22.4M Vol.
UNRWA
10% market probability
10%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 90%
+10 / −90
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Yulia Navalnaya
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Pope Leo XIV
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
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0 / 2,000
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Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
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0 / 2,000
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Donald Trump
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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International Court of Justice
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
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0 / 2,000
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Narendra Modi
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
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0 / 2,000
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Julian Assange
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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0 / 2,000
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Greta Thunberg
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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0 / 2,000
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Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
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0 / 2,000
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Ahmed al-Sharaa
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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0 / 2,000
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António Guterres
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Xi Jinping
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Xi Jinping
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Charlie Kirk
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Charlie Kirk
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Mohammed bin Salman
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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0 / 2,000
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Khaled Mashal
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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0 / 2,000
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Elon Musk
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Elon Musk
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0 / 2,000
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Vladimir Putin
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Vladimir Putin
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Benjamin Netanyahu
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Benjamin Netanyahu
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Public forecast history
All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.
Forecast
No
Donald Trump
· Polymarket 92%
· +8 /−92
+3 rep if exited now
Pending
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