Resolved
World
Polymarket
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Top outcomes
Other
100%
ICRC
0%
UNHCR
0%
UNRWA
0%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
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Resolved outcome: Other
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All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$32.3M Vol.
Other
100% market probability
100%
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
No 0%
+100 / −0
ICRC
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
UNHCR
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
UNRWA
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Elon Musk
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Jimmy Lai
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Xi Jinping
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Yad Vashem
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Ilham Tohti
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Mark Carney
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Charlie Kirk
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Donald Trump
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Pope Leo XIV
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Khaled Mashal
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Mykola Kuleba
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Narendra Modi
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Sara Al-Saqqa
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Chow Hang-tung
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Greta Thunberg
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Julian Assange
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Vladimir Putin
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Ahmed al-Sharaa
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Yulia Navalnaya
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
António Guterres
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Hussam Abu Safiya
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Save the Children
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Benjamin Netanyahu
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Mohammed bin Salman
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
World Central Kitchen
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Doctors Without Borders
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Reporters Without Borders
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
International Space Station
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
International Criminal Court
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
International Court of Justice
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Committee to Protect Journalists
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Parents Circle – Families Forum
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
International Association of Judges
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
International Peace Research Association
0% market probability
0%
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
No 100%
+0 / −100
Forecasts are closed for this market.
Public forecast history
All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.
Forecast
No
Donald Trump
· Polymarket 92%
· +8 /−92
✓ Correct forecast
Correct
Discussion
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