Open World Polymarket

Israel closes its airspace by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

$3.5M Vol. Closes May 31, 2026

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$3.5m Vol.

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$3.5M Vol.

June 30

13% market probability

13%
Yes 13% +87 / −13 No 87% +13 / −87

June 15

11% market probability

11%
Yes 11% +89 / −11 No 89% +11 / −89

May 31

3% market probability

3%
Yes 3% +97 / −3 No 97% +3 / −97
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