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Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Top outcomes

Petro - Colombia President 61%
Starmer - UK PM 20%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 10%
Netanyahu - Israel PM 2%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

$785K Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$784.8k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$785K Vol.

Petro - Colombia President

61% market probability

61%

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0 / 2,000

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Starmer - UK PM

20% market probability

20%

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0 / 2,000

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Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

10% market probability

10%

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0 / 2,000

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Netanyahu - Israel PM

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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Sánchez - Spanish PM

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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None before 2027

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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Takaichi - Japan PM

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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Merz - German Chancellor

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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Trump - USA President

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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Lecornu - France PM

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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Albanese - Australia PM

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Erdoğan - Türkiye President

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Abbas - President of Palestine

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Putin - Russia President

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Lula da Silva - Brazil President

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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al-Sharaa - Syria President

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Sheinbaum - Mexico President

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Macron - France President

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Milei - Argentina President

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Newsom - California Governor

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Public forecast history

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