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Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Top outcomes
Petro - Colombia President
61%
Starmer - UK PM
20%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
10%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
2%
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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$785K Vol.
Closes Dec 31, 2026
Live Polymarket Chart
Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$784.8k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$785K Vol.
Petro - Colombia President
61% market probability
61%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 61%
+39 / −61
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 39%
+61 / −39
Starmer - UK PM
20% market probability
20%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 80%
+20 / −80
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
10% market probability
10%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 90%
+10 / −90
Explain your Yes on Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
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0 / 2,000
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Netanyahu - Israel PM
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Sánchez - Spanish PM
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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None before 2027
2% market probability
2%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 98%
+2 / −98
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Takaichi - Japan PM
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Merz - German Chancellor
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Merz - German Chancellor
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Trump - USA President
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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0 / 2,000
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Lecornu - France PM
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Albanese - Australia PM
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Albanese - Australia PM
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Erdoğan - Türkiye President
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Erdoğan - Türkiye President
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Abbas - President of Palestine
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Abbas - President of Palestine
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Putin - Russia President
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Putin - Russia President
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Lula da Silva - Brazil President
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Lula da Silva - Brazil President
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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al-Sharaa - Syria President
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on al-Sharaa - Syria President
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Sheinbaum - Mexico President
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Sheinbaum - Mexico President
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Macron - France President
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Macron - France President
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Milei - Argentina President
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Milei - Argentina President
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Newsom - California Governor
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Public forecast history
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