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Venezuela leader end of 2026?

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

$89.3M Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

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$89.3m Vol.

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$89.3M Vol.

Nicolás Maduro

67% market probability

67%
Yes 67% +33 / −67 No 33% +67 / −33

Delcy Rodríguez

20% market probability

20%
Yes 20% +80 / −20 No 80% +20 / −80

María Corina Machado

5% market probability

5%
Yes 5% +95 / −5 No 95% +5 / −95

Edmundo González

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Jorge Rodríguez

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

No Head of State

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Diosdado Cabello Rondón

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Donald Trump

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Vladimir Padrino López

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Dan Caine

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Evan Pettus

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Marco Rubio

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Pete Hegseth

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Frank Donovan

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Dinorah Figuera

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Richard Grenell

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
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