Open Politics Polymarket

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

$3.6M Vol. Closes Oct 4, 2026

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$3.6m Vol.

All outcomes

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$3.6M Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro

61% market probability

61%
Yes 61% +39 / −61 No 39% +61 / −39

Renan Santos

18% market probability

18%
Yes 18% +82 / −18 No 82% +18 / −82

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

10% market probability

10%
Yes 10% +90 / −10 No 90% +10 / −90

Fernando Haddad

5% market probability

5%
Yes 5% +95 / −5 No 95% +5 / −95

Romeu Zema

4% market probability

4%
Yes 4% +96 / −4 No 96% +4 / −96

Jair Bolsonaro

2% market probability

2%
Yes 2% +98 / −2 No 98% +2 / −98

Michelle Bolsonaro

2% market probability

2%
Yes 2% +98 / −2 No 98% +2 / −98

Camilo Santana

2% market probability

2%
Yes 2% +98 / −2 No 98% +2 / −98

Ronaldo Caiado

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Geraldo Alckmin

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99

Tereza Cristina

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Ratinho Júnior

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Tarcisio de Freitas

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Aldo Rebelo

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Eduardo Leite

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Eduardo Bolsonaro

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Helder Barbalho

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
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