Resolved Politics Polymarket

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Top outcomes

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 100%
Romeu Zema 0%
Eduardo Leite 0%
Camilo Santana 0%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

$10.9M Vol. Closed Oct 5, 2026
Resolved outcome: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

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$10.9m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$10.9M Vol.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

100% market probability

100%
Yes 100% +0 / −100 No 0% +100 / −0

Romeu Zema

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Eduardo Leite

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Camilo Santana

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Jair Bolsonaro

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Fernando Haddad

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Geraldo Alckmin

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Tereza Cristina

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Flávio Bolsonaro

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Tarcisio de Freitas

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Other

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Person N

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Person P

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Person S

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Person T

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Person U

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Person V

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Person W

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Person X

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Person Y

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Person Z

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Aldo Rebelo

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Augusto Cury

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Renan Santos

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Ronaldo Caiado

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Helder Barbalho

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Ratinho Júnior

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Eduardo Bolsonaro

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Michelle Bolsonaro

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
Forecasts are closed because this event has already started.

Public forecast history

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Forecast Flávio Bolsonaro · Polymarket 64% · +36/−64

Exited forecast, +17 reputation realized

Exited

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