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Politics
Polymarket
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Top outcomes
Flávio Bolsonaro
82%
Renan Santos
9%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
5%
Camilo Santana
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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$4.1M Vol.
Closes Oct 4, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$4.1m Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$4.1M Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
82% market probability
82%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 82%
+18 / −82
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 18%
+82 / −18
Renan Santos
9% market probability
9%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 9%
+91 / −9
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 91%
+9 / −91
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Explain your No on Renan Santos
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
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0 / 2,000
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Camilo Santana
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Camilo Santana
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Romeu Zema
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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0 / 2,000
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Ronaldo Caiado
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Ronaldo Caiado
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0 / 2,000
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Fernando Haddad
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
Explain your Yes on Fernando Haddad
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0 / 2,000
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Jair Bolsonaro
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Jair Bolsonaro
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Geraldo Alckmin
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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0 / 2,000
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Aldo Rebelo
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Aldo Rebelo
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0 / 2,000
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Eduardo Leite
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Eduardo Leite
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0 / 2,000
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Ratinho Júnior
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Ratinho Júnior
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Tereza Cristina
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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0 / 2,000
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Eduardo Bolsonaro
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Eduardo Bolsonaro
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Michelle Bolsonaro
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Michelle Bolsonaro
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Tarcisio de Freitas
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on Tarcisio de Freitas
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Helder Barbalho
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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0 / 2,000
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Public forecast history
All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.
Forecast
Flávio Bolsonaro
· Polymarket 64%
· +36 /−64
Exited forecast, +17 reputation realized
Exited
Discussion
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