Open Politics Polymarket

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Top outcomes

Flávio Bolsonaro 82%
Renan Santos 9%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 5%
Camilo Santana 1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

$4.1M Vol. Closes Oct 4, 2026

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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$4.1m Vol.

All outcomes

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$4.1M Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro

82% market probability

82%

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0 / 2,000

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Renan Santos

9% market probability

9%

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0 / 2,000

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Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

5% market probability

5%

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0 / 2,000

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Camilo Santana

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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Romeu Zema

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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Ronaldo Caiado

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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Fernando Haddad

1% market probability

1%

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0 / 2,000

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Jair Bolsonaro

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Geraldo Alckmin

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Aldo Rebelo

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Eduardo Leite

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Ratinho Júnior

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Tereza Cristina

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Eduardo Bolsonaro

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Michelle Bolsonaro

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Tarcisio de Freitas

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Helder Barbalho

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

Forecast Flávio Bolsonaro · Polymarket 64% · +36/−64

Exited forecast, +17 reputation realized

Exited

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