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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Top outcomes
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
97%
Nathalie Arthaud
89%
Marine Le Pen
88%
Fabien Roussel
88%
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$206.5k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$207K Vol.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
97% market probability
97%
Yes 97%
+3 / −97
No 3%
+97 / −3
Nathalie Arthaud
89% market probability
89%
Yes 89%
+11 / −89
No 11%
+89 / −11
Marine Le Pen
88% market probability
88%
Yes 88%
+12 / −88
No 12%
+88 / −12
Fabien Roussel
88% market probability
88%
Yes 88%
+12 / −88
No 12%
+88 / −12
Édouard Philippe
84% market probability
84%
Yes 84%
+16 / −84
No 16%
+84 / −16
Bruno Retailleau
74% market probability
74%
Yes 74%
+26 / −74
No 26%
+74 / −26
Éric Zemmour
72% market probability
72%
Yes 72%
+28 / −72
No 28%
+72 / −28
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
63% market probability
63%
Yes 63%
+37 / −63
No 37%
+63 / −37
Raphaël Glucksmann
60% market probability
60%
Yes 60%
+40 / −60
No 40%
+60 / −40
David Lisnard
44% market probability
44%
Yes 44%
+56 / −44
No 56%
+44 / −56
Dominique de Villepin
40% market probability
40%
Yes 40%
+60 / −40
No 60%
+40 / −60
Gabriel Attal
34% market probability
34%
Yes 34%
+66 / −34
No 66%
+34 / −66
Marine Tondelier
32% market probability
32%
Yes 32%
+68 / −32
No 68%
+32 / −68
François Ruffin
26% market probability
26%
Yes 26%
+74 / −26
No 74%
+26 / −74
François Hollande
22% market probability
22%
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
No 78%
+22 / −78
Sarah Knafo
22% market probability
22%
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
No 78%
+22 / −78
Juan Branco
14% market probability
14%
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
No 86%
+14 / −86
Michel-Edouard Leclerc
13% market probability
13%
Yes 13%
+87 / −13
No 87%
+13 / −87
Matthieu Pigasse
12% market probability
12%
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
No 88%
+12 / −88
François Asselineau
10% market probability
10%
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
No 90%
+10 / −90
Manuel Bompard
8% market probability
8%
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
No 92%
+8 / −92
Xavier Bertrand
8% market probability
8%
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
No 92%
+8 / −92
Philippe de Villiers
8% market probability
8%
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
No 92%
+8 / −92
Jérôme Guedj
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
Ségolène Royal
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
Jean-Michel Fauvergue
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
Jordan Bardella
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
François Bayrou
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
Karim Bouamrane
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
Gérald Darmanin
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
Bernard Cazeneuve
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
Jean Castex
5% market probability
5%
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
No 95%
+5 / −95
Yaël Braun-Pivet
5% market probability
5%
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
No 95%
+5 / −95
Olivier Faure
5% market probability
5%
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
No 95%
+5 / −95
Delphine Batho
4% market probability
4%
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
No 96%
+4 / −96
Manuel Valls
4% market probability
4%
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
No 96%
+4 / −96
Carole Delga
4% market probability
4%
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
No 96%
+4 / −96
Bally Bagayoko
4% market probability
4%
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
No 96%
+4 / −96
Clémentine Autain
4% market probability
4%
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
No 96%
+4 / −96
Teddy Riner
3% market probability
3%
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
No 97%
+3 / −97
Laurent Wauquiez
3% market probability
3%
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
No 97%
+3 / −97
Sébastien Lecornu
3% market probability
3%
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
No 97%
+3 / −97
Valérie Pécresse
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
Mathilde Panot
2% market probability
2%
Yes 2%
+98 / −2
No 98%
+2 / −98
Michel Barnier
1% market probability
1%
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
No 99%
+1 / −99
Élisabeth Borne
1% market probability
1%
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
No 99%
+1 / −99
Public forecast history
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