Open Science & Tech Polymarket

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Top outcomes

SpaceX 80%
xAI 26%
Anthropic 16%
OpenAI 4%

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

$2.3M Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$2.3m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$2.3M Vol.

SpaceX

80% market probability

80%
Yes 80% +20 / −80 No 20% +80 / −20

xAI

26% market probability

26%
Yes 26% +74 / −26 No 74% +26 / −74

Anthropic

16% market probability

16%
Yes 16% +84 / −16 No 84% +16 / −84

OpenAI

4% market probability

4%
Yes 4% +96 / −4 No 96% +4 / −96

SHEIN

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Waymo

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Kraken

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Stripe

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Discord

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Revolut

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

ByteDance

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Databricks

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Perplexity AI

0% market probability

0%
Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100
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