Open World Polymarket

Iran leadership change by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

$15.6M Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

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$15.6m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$15.6M Vol.

December 31

28% market probability

28%
Yes 28% +72 / −28 No 72% +28 / −72

June 30

7% market probability

7%
Yes 7% +93 / −7 No 93% +7 / −93

May 31

1% market probability

1%
Yes 1% +99 / −1 No 99% +1 / −99
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