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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...? 2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis) Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...? Bitcoin all time high by ___? F1 Drivers' Champion Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? MLB World Series Champion 2026 Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch? NBA: 2027 Champion Brazil Presidential Election Will Base launch a token by ___ ? Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Open Politics Polymarket

Iran leadership change by...?

Top outcomes

June 30, 2027 26%
December 31 16%
November 30 10%
October 31 6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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$24.5M Vol. Closes Jul 1, 2027

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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$24.5m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$24.5M Vol.

June 30, 2027

26% market probability

26%

Explain your Yes on June 30, 2027 Explain your No on June 30, 2027 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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December 31

16% market probability

16%

Explain your Yes on December 31 Explain your No on December 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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November 30

10% market probability

10%

Explain your Yes on November 30 Explain your No on November 30 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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October 31

6% market probability

6%

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0 / 2,000

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September 30

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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May 31

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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July 31

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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June 30

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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April 30

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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March 13

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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March 31

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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August 15

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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August 22

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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August 31

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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Public forecast history

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