Open Polymarket

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

Top outcomes

December 31 28%
July 17 16%
August 31 15%
July 31 14%

This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement. The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.

$69K Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

$69.1k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$69K Vol.

December 31

28% market probability

28%

Explain your Yes on December 31 Explain your No on December 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

July 17

16% market probability

16%

Explain your Yes on July 17 Explain your No on July 17 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

August 31

15% market probability

15%

Explain your Yes on August 31 Explain your No on August 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

July 31

14% market probability

14%

Explain your Yes on July 31 Explain your No on July 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.