Open Polymarket

Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof. A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal. Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market. The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

$91K Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2027

Live odds

No 91%
Yes 9%

Live Polymarket Chart

Open on Polymarket ↗

Place a forecast

Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?

535 days left

Pick your outcome below. Live Polymarket odds are captured when you submit. Share the argument behind your pick, then post your forecast.

Market closes Dec 31, 2027

Your forecast

Reputation at stake based on current Polymarket odds.

Your pick

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.