Politics

Elections, policy, and government

215 open forecasts

Events in Politics

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U.S. nuclear test by...?

December 31, 2026 5% Yes No
September 30, 2026 1% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$764K Vol.
Polymarket World

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

December 31 12% Yes No
September 30 6% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$28.4M Vol.
Polymarket World

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$178K Vol.
Polymarket

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$613K Vol.
Polymarket World

US strike on Mexico by...?

December 31 12% Yes No
March 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$3.4M Vol.
Polymarket World

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

No 11%
Yes 89%
$148K Vol.
Polymarket

Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?

Delcy Rodríguez 94% Yes No
María Corina Machado 3% Yes No

+14 more outcomes

$270K Vol.
Polymarket

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 2027 88% Yes No
Switzerland 3% Yes No

+12 more outcomes

$2.7M Vol.
Polymarket World

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

Belgium 19% Yes No
The Netherlands 13% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$748K Vol.
Polymarket World

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

India 21% Yes No
South Korea 16% Yes No

+15 more outcomes

$354K Vol.
Polymarket

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot 41% Yes No
Benjamin Netanyahu 36% Yes No

+16 more outcomes

$26.6M Vol.
Polymarket World

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Pam Bondi 100% Yes No
Dan Bongino 100% Yes No

+18 more outcomes

$1.3M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Matt Gaetz 34% Yes No
Daniel Penny 34% Yes No

+25 more outcomes

$348K Vol.
Polymarket

Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$75K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Alberta join the US?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$2.2M Vol.
Polymarket World

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

No 88%
Yes 12%
$240K Vol.
Polymarket

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

No 93%
Yes 7%
$134K Vol.
Polymarket

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$38.4M Vol.
Polymarket World

Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?

December 31 9% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$767K Vol.
Polymarket World

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

No 87%
Yes 13%
$266K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$161K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?

December 31 7% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$471K Vol.
Polymarket

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

No 98%
Yes 2%
$422K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$11.6M Vol.
Polymarket World