Open
Politics
Polymarket
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Top outcomes
Pam Bondi
100%
Dan Bongino
100%
Tulsi Gabbard
100%
Karoline Leavitt
100%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Read more
Show less
$1.4M Vol.
Closes Jan 1, 2027
Live Polymarket Chart
Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
Open on Polymarket ↗
The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.
$1.4m Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$1.4M Vol.
Pam Bondi
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Dan Bongino
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Dan Bongino
Explain your No on Dan Bongino
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Tulsi Gabbard
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Tulsi Gabbard
Explain your No on Tulsi Gabbard
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Karoline Leavitt
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Karoline Leavitt
Explain your No on Karoline Leavitt
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
100% market probability
100%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 100%
+0 / −100
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 0%
+100 / −0
Explain your Yes on Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Explain your No on Lori Chavez-DeRemer
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Kristi Noem
37% market probability
37%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 37%
+63 / −37
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 63%
+37 / −63
Explain your Yes on Kristi Noem
Explain your No on Kristi Noem
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Russell Vought
30% market probability
30%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 30%
+70 / −30
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 70%
+30 / −70
Explain your Yes on Russell Vought
Explain your No on Russell Vought
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Dan Scavino
29% market probability
29%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 29%
+71 / −29
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 71%
+29 / −71
Explain your Yes on Dan Scavino
Explain your No on Dan Scavino
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Howard Lutnick
28% market probability
28%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 28%
+72 / −28
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 72%
+28 / −72
Explain your Yes on Howard Lutnick
Explain your No on Howard Lutnick
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Tom Homan
27% market probability
27%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 27%
+73 / −27
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 73%
+27 / −73
Explain your Yes on Tom Homan
Explain your No on Tom Homan
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Kash Patel
24% market probability
24%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 24%
+76 / −24
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 76%
+24 / −76
Explain your Yes on Kash Patel
Explain your No on Kash Patel
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Susie Wiles
23% market probability
23%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 23%
+77 / −23
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 77%
+23 / −77
Explain your Yes on Susie Wiles
Explain your No on Susie Wiles
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
23% market probability
23%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 23%
+77 / −23
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 77%
+23 / −77
Explain your Yes on Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Explain your No on Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Markwayne Mullin
22% market probability
22%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 78%
+22 / −78
Explain your Yes on Markwayne Mullin
Explain your No on Markwayne Mullin
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
David Sacks
22% market probability
22%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 78%
+22 / −78
Explain your Yes on David Sacks
Explain your No on David Sacks
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Lee Zeldin
19% market probability
19%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 19%
+81 / −19
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 81%
+19 / −81
Explain your Yes on Lee Zeldin
Explain your No on Lee Zeldin
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Pete Hegseth
19% market probability
19%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 19%
+81 / −19
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 81%
+19 / −81
Explain your Yes on Pete Hegseth
Explain your No on Pete Hegseth
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
John Ratcliffe
12% market probability
12%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 88%
+12 / −88
Explain your Yes on John Ratcliffe
Explain your No on John Ratcliffe
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Scott Bessent
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on Scott Bessent
Explain your No on Scott Bessent
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Stephen Miller
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on Stephen Miller
Explain your No on Stephen Miller
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Marco Rubio
6% market probability
6%
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
No 94%
+6 / −94
Explain your Yes on Marco Rubio
Explain your No on Marco Rubio
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Public forecast history
All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.
No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.