Open World Polymarket

U.S. nuclear test by...?

Top outcomes

December 31, 2026 8%
September 30, 2026 5%
June 30, 2026 1%
December 31 0%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

$670K Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

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$669.9k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$670K Vol.

December 31, 2026

8% market probability

8%

Explain your Yes on December 31, 2026 Explain your No on December 31, 2026 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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September 30, 2026

5% market probability

5%

Explain your Yes on September 30, 2026 Explain your No on September 30, 2026 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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June 30, 2026

1% market probability

1%

Explain your Yes on June 30, 2026 Explain your No on June 30, 2026 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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December 31

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on December 31 Explain your No on December 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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November 30

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on November 30 Explain your No on November 30 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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March 31, 2026

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on March 31, 2026 Explain your No on March 31, 2026 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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