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Polymarket
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Top outcomes
Donald Brodie
69%
Daniel Penny
55%
Stefan Brodie
51%
Roger Stone
40%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$268.0k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$268K Vol.
Donald Brodie
69% market probability
69%
Yes 69%
+31 / −69
No 31%
+69 / −31
Daniel Penny
55% market probability
55%
Yes 55%
+45 / −55
No 45%
+55 / −45
Stefan Brodie
51% market probability
51%
Yes 51%
+49 / −51
No 49%
+51 / −49
Roger Stone
40% market probability
40%
Yes 40%
+60 / −40
No 60%
+40 / −60
Matt Gaetz
40% market probability
40%
Yes 40%
+60 / −40
No 60%
+40 / −60
Keonne Rodriguez
30% market probability
30%
Yes 30%
+70 / −30
No 70%
+30 / −70
Bob Menendez
29% market probability
29%
Yes 29%
+71 / −29
No 71%
+29 / −71
Steve Bannon
22% market probability
22%
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
No 78%
+22 / −78
Ryan Salame
14% market probability
14%
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
No 86%
+14 / −86
Hunter Biden
12% market probability
12%
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
No 88%
+12 / −88
Sam Bankman-Fried
10% market probability
10%
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
No 90%
+10 / −90
Ghislaine Maxwell
10% market probability
10%
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
No 90%
+10 / −90
Julian Assange
9% market probability
9%
Yes 9%
+91 / −9
No 91%
+9 / −91
Eric Adams
8% market probability
8%
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
No 92%
+8 / −92
Martin Shkreli
8% market probability
8%
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
No 92%
+8 / −92
Antoine Massey
8% market probability
8%
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
No 92%
+8 / −92
Roger Ver
8% market probability
8%
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
No 92%
+8 / −92
Joe Exotic
8% market probability
8%
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
No 92%
+8 / −92
Elizabeth Holmes
8% market probability
8%
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
No 92%
+8 / −92
Derek Chauvin
7% market probability
7%
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
No 93%
+7 / −93
Nicolas Maduro
7% market probability
7%
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
No 93%
+7 / −93
Edward Snowden
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
Young Thug
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
Diddy
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
Do Kwon
5% market probability
5%
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
No 95%
+5 / −95
Himself
5% market probability
5%
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
No 95%
+5 / −95
Elon Musk
4% market probability
4%
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
No 96%
+4 / −96
Public forecast history
All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.
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