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Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Top outcomes

Donald Brodie 25%
Stefan Brodie 17%
Ryan Salame 14%
Daniel Penny 14%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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$519K Vol. Closes Jan 1, 2027

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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$518.6k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$519K Vol.

Donald Brodie

25% market probability

25%

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0 / 2,000

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Stefan Brodie

17% market probability

17%

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0 / 2,000

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Ryan Salame

14% market probability

14%

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0 / 2,000

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Daniel Penny

14% market probability

14%

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0 / 2,000

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Keonne Rodriguez

10% market probability

10%

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0 / 2,000

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Matt Gaetz

6% market probability

6%

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0 / 2,000

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Steve Bannon

6% market probability

6%

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0 / 2,000

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Joe Exotic

6% market probability

6%

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0 / 2,000

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Roger Ver

5% market probability

5%

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0 / 2,000

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Bob Menendez

5% market probability

5%

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0 / 2,000

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Diddy

5% market probability

5%

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0 / 2,000

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Himself

5% market probability

5%

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0 / 2,000

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Roger Stone

5% market probability

5%

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0 / 2,000

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Martin Shkreli

4% market probability

4%

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0 / 2,000

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Young Thug

4% market probability

4%

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0 / 2,000

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Nicolas Maduro

4% market probability

4%

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0 / 2,000

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Ghislaine Maxwell

4% market probability

4%

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0 / 2,000

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Sam Bankman-Fried

4% market probability

4%

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0 / 2,000

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Derek Chauvin

4% market probability

4%

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0 / 2,000

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Edward Snowden

4% market probability

4%

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0 / 2,000

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Elizabeth Holmes

4% market probability

4%

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0 / 2,000

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Julian Assange

4% market probability

4%

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0 / 2,000

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Antoine Massey

3% market probability

3%

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0 / 2,000

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Do Kwon

3% market probability

3%

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0 / 2,000

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Eric Adams

3% market probability

3%

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0 / 2,000

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Andrew Tate

3% market probability

3%

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0 / 2,000

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Elon Musk

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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Hunter Biden

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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Public forecast history

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