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Polymarket
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Top outcomes
Ryan Salame
26%
Stefan Brodie
24%
Donald Brodie
22%
Matt Gaetz
20%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$438.4k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$438K Vol.
Ryan Salame
26% market probability
26%
Yes 26%
+74 / −26
No 74%
+26 / −74
Stefan Brodie
24% market probability
24%
Yes 24%
+76 / −24
No 76%
+24 / −76
Donald Brodie
22% market probability
22%
Yes 22%
+78 / −22
No 78%
+22 / −78
Matt Gaetz
20% market probability
20%
Yes 20%
+80 / −20
No 80%
+20 / −80
Roger Stone
19% market probability
19%
Yes 19%
+81 / −19
No 81%
+19 / −81
Keonne Rodriguez
18% market probability
18%
Yes 18%
+82 / −18
No 82%
+18 / −82
Steve Bannon
12% market probability
12%
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
No 88%
+12 / −88
Young Thug
11% market probability
11%
Yes 11%
+89 / −11
No 89%
+11 / −89
Daniel Penny
10% market probability
10%
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
No 90%
+10 / −90
Eric Adams
8% market probability
8%
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
No 92%
+8 / −92
Joe Exotic
8% market probability
8%
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
No 92%
+8 / −92
Roger Ver
8% market probability
8%
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
No 92%
+8 / −92
Bob Menendez
7% market probability
7%
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
No 93%
+7 / −93
Andrew Tate
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
Julian Assange
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
Derek Chauvin
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
Nicolas Maduro
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
Martin Shkreli
6% market probability
6%
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
No 94%
+6 / −94
Elizabeth Holmes
5% market probability
5%
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
No 95%
+5 / −95
Ghislaine Maxwell
5% market probability
5%
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
No 95%
+5 / −95
Edward Snowden
4% market probability
4%
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
No 96%
+4 / −96
Diddy
4% market probability
4%
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
No 96%
+4 / −96
Sam Bankman-Fried
4% market probability
4%
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
No 96%
+4 / −96
Antoine Massey
3% market probability
3%
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
No 97%
+3 / −97
Himself
3% market probability
3%
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
No 97%
+3 / −97
Do Kwon
3% market probability
3%
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
No 97%
+3 / −97
Hunter Biden
3% market probability
3%
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
No 97%
+3 / −97
Elon Musk
1% market probability
1%
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
No 99%
+1 / −99
Public forecast history
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