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Polymarket
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
Top outcomes
Mexico
18%
India
17%
Israel
17%
Australia
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$387.7k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$388K Vol.
Mexico
18% market probability
18%
Yes 18%
+82 / −18
No 82%
+18 / −82
India
17% market probability
17%
Yes 17%
+83 / −17
No 83%
+17 / −83
Israel
17% market probability
17%
Yes 17%
+83 / −17
No 83%
+17 / −83
Australia
14% market probability
14%
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
No 86%
+14 / −86
Indonesia
14% market probability
14%
Yes 14%
+86 / −14
No 86%
+14 / −86
Vietnam
13% market probability
13%
Yes 13%
+87 / −13
No 87%
+13 / −87
Taiwan
13% market probability
13%
Yes 13%
+87 / −13
No 87%
+13 / −87
South Korea
12% market probability
12%
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
No 88%
+12 / −88
South Africa
12% market probability
12%
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
No 88%
+12 / −88
Canada
12% market probability
12%
Yes 12%
+88 / −12
No 88%
+12 / −88
Argentina
10% market probability
10%
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
No 90%
+10 / −90
United Kingdom
10% market probability
10%
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
No 90%
+10 / −90
Brazil
10% market probability
10%
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
No 90%
+10 / −90
Japan
10% market probability
10%
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
No 90%
+10 / −90
Pakistan
10% market probability
10%
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
No 90%
+10 / −90
Russia
10% market probability
10%
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
No 90%
+10 / −90
European Union
7% market probability
7%
Yes 7%
+93 / −7
No 93%
+7 / −93
Public forecast history
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