Markets
All markets
Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.
Which company has best AI model end of June?
Anthropic
91%
Yes
No
Google
6%
Yes
No
+13 more outcomes
$13.0M Vol.
Polymarket
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
xAI
0%
Yes
No
Google
0%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$11.9M Vol.
Polymarket
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
>$1T
99%
Yes
No
>$1.2T
97%
Yes
No
+14 more outcomes
$9.2M Vol.
Polymarket
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
↑1k
100%
Yes
No
↑2k
100%
Yes
No
+7 more outcomes
$7.7M Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
What will SpaceX's public ticker be?
Other (incl $SPCX)
100%
Yes
No
$SPAX
0%
Yes
No
+7 more outcomes
$7.0M Vol.
Polymarket
Claude 5 released by…?
June 12, 2026
100%
Yes
No
June 19, 2026
100%
Yes
No
+10 more outcomes
$4.5M Vol.
Polymarket
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)
1T+
99%
Yes
No
No IPO before 2028
0%
Yes
No
+6 more outcomes
$4.0M Vol.
Polymarket
Claude Mythos released by…?
June 9
100%
Yes
No
July 31
100%
Yes
No
+7 more outcomes
$3.2M Vol.
Polymarket
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
Anthropic
88%
Yes
No
Google
6%
Yes
No
+13 more outcomes
$1.6M Vol.
Polymarket
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
14–16
36%
Yes
No
11–13
33%
Yes
No
+5 more outcomes
$1.3M Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
0
64%
Yes
No
1
20%
Yes
No
+4 more outcomes
$1.1M Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
GPT-5.6 released by...?
July 31
96%
Yes
No
June 30
94%
Yes
No
+6 more outcomes
$784K Vol.
Polymarket
New pandemic in 2026?
No
90%
Yes
10%
$716K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
Claude 4.8 released by...?
$681K Vol.
Polymarket
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
No
95%
Yes
5%
$633K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
Which company has second best AI model end of June?
Anthropic
85%
Yes
No
Google
10%
Yes
No
+13 more outcomes
$579K Vol.
Polymarket
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
No
88%
Yes
12%
$569K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
December 31
38%
Yes
No
September 30
38%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$542K Vol.
Polymarket
Which company has the best Math AI model end of May?
$521K Vol.
Polymarket
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
<5
56%
Yes
No
5-6
24%
Yes
No
+6 more outcomes
$465K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
No
100%
Yes
0%
$349K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
No
70%
Yes
30%
$331K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
No
71%
Yes
29%
$306K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
Forecasts closed
2nd hottest
99%
Yes
No
3rd hottest
1%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$247K Vol.
Polymarket
Science & Tech
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