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All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$225K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Natural Disaster in 2026?

No 76%
Yes 24%
$223K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be?

Forecasts closed
1.75-2.00T 94% Yes No
1.50-1.75T 3% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$208K Vol.
Polymarket

May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Forecasts closed
1.10–1.14ºC 98% Yes No
<1.10ºC 2% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$194K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Measles cases in U.S. by May 31?

2000 0% Yes No
2200 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$194K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?

Anthropic 42% Yes No
Google 40% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$191K Vol.
Polymarket

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

No 88%
Yes 12%
$164K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Claude Mythos released on…?

On or prior to June 9 100% Yes No
June 21 0% Yes No

+21 more outcomes

$142K Vol.
Polymarket

Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

No 18%
Yes 82%
$141K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

No 88%
Yes 12%
$136K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

When will GPT-5.6 be released?

June 15–June 21 48% Yes No
June 22–June 28 30% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$115K Vol.
Polymarket

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$109K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes June 1 - June 7?

>9 100% Yes No
6 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$105K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Precipitation in Hong Kong in May?

$102K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

No release by June 30 20% Yes No
June 23 18% Yes No

+28 more outcomes

$97K Vol.
Polymarket

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Forecasts closed
No 90%
Yes 10%
$95K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Claude Opus 4.8: Arena Debut?

<1480 100% Yes No
1480-1490 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$93K Vol.
Polymarket

Claude Mythos: Coding Arena Debut?

1520+ 70% Yes No
1530+ 64% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$92K Vol.
Polymarket

Which company has the third best AI model end of June?

Anthropic 80% Yes No
Google 12% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$86K Vol.
Polymarket

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

1250+ 73% Yes No
1200–1249 7% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$73K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

No 76%
Yes 24%
$72K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Which company has best AI model end of July?

Anthropic 86% Yes No
Google 6% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$61K Vol.
Polymarket

What will Apple announce at Apple WWDC 2026?

AI-Charged Siri 100% Yes No
Standalone Siri App 100% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$59K Vol.
Polymarket

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 25 - May 31?

$51K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech