Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? Los Angeles Mayoral Election Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? Fed Decision in December? California Governor Election Winner Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch? Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? Largest Company end of December 2026? Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Iran leader end of 2026? Putin out as President of Russia by...? Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? F1 Constructors' Champion Will MetaMask launch a token by ___ ? What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? Fed Decision in October? Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? Los Angeles Mayoral Election Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? Fed Decision in December? California Governor Election Winner Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch? Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? Largest Company end of December 2026? Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Iran leader end of 2026? Putin out as President of Russia by...? Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? F1 Constructors' Champion Will MetaMask launch a token by ___ ? What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? Fed Decision in October? Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

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When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?

No release by November 1 90% Yes No

October 26–November 1 3% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?

1480+ 27% Yes No

1500+ 24% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

#10 100% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Hodge Conjecture 32% Yes No

No solution by Dec 31, 2027 32% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

Polymarket Science & Tech

Natural Disaster in 2026?

Polymarket Science & Tech

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

1560 46% Yes No

1580 19% Yes No

+1 more outcome

Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

Xiaomi 62% Yes No

Other 50% Yes No

+23 more outcomes

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

↑ 1500 100% Yes No

↑ 1510 100% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

Polymarket Science & Tech

How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?

12-15 77% Yes No

16-19 9% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?

December 31, 2027 66% Yes No

September 30, 2027 16% Yes No

+1 more outcome

Polymarket Science & Tech

Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

55%+ 100% Yes No

60%+ 36% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

45%+ 53% Yes No

50%+ 38% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

Anthropic lab leak by...?

June 30, 2027 6% Yes No

December 31, 2026 1% Yes No

Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

50%+ 100% Yes No

55%+ 76% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Polymarket Science & Tech

Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?

1525 100% Yes No

1550 100% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

Highest Google Gemini score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

50%+ 100% Yes No

55%+ 100% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

SSI public model released by…?

December 31 36% Yes No

November 30 34% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

October 20 36% Yes No

No release by October 31 16% Yes No

+28 more outcomes

Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?

No release by October 31 90% Yes No

October 20 2% Yes No

+30 more outcomes

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

Polymarket Science & Tech

Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?

Polymarket Science & Tech

Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

40%+ 29% Yes No

45%+ 27% Yes No

+2 more outcomes