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What price will Bitcoin hit in July? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Iran leadership change by...? Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch? World Cup: Nation to Reach Final Which party will win the House in 2026? Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 Israel closes its airspace by...? Iran full airspace closure by...? California Governor Election Winner Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Will US withdraw from NATO by...? Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch? US strike on Mexico by...? Presidential Election Winner 2028 Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

Top outcomes

1560 34%
1580 30%
1600 11%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

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$122K Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

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$122.4k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$122K Vol.

1560

34% market probability

34%

Explain your Yes on 1560 Explain your No on 1560 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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1580

30% market probability

30%

Explain your Yes on 1580 Explain your No on 1580 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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1600

11% market probability

11%

Explain your Yes on 1600 Explain your No on 1600 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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