Open
Politics
Polymarket
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
Top outcomes
December 31
3%
March 31
0%
January 31
0%
December 31, 2025
0%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Read more
Show less
$14.2M Vol.
Closes Jan 1, 2027
Live Polymarket Chart
Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
Open on Polymarket ↗
The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.
$14.2m Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$14.2M Vol.
December 31
3% market probability
3%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 3%
+97 / −3
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 97%
+3 / −97
March 31
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on March 31
Explain your No on March 31
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
January 31
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on January 31
Explain your No on January 31
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
December 31, 2025
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on December 31, 2025
Explain your No on December 31, 2025
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Public forecast history
All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.
No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.