Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Top outcomes

December 31 6%

March 31 0%

January 31 0%

December 31, 2025 0%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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$14.2M Vol. Closed Mar 31, 2026

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$14.2m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$14.2M Vol.

December 31

6% market probability

Yes 6% +94 / −6 No 94% +6 / −94

March 31

0% market probability

Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

January 31

0% market probability

Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

December 31, 2025

0% market probability

Yes 0% +100 / −0 No 100% +0 / −100

Forecasts are closed because this market is no longer accepting forecasts.

Public forecast history

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No forecasts were placed before this market closed.