Open Politics Polymarket

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Top outcomes

December 31 3%
March 31 0%
January 31 0%
December 31, 2025 0%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

$14.2M Vol. Closes Jan 1, 2027

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$14.2m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$14.2M Vol.

December 31

3% market probability

3%

Explain your Yes on December 31 Explain your No on December 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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March 31

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on March 31 Explain your No on March 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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January 31

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on January 31 Explain your No on January 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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December 31, 2025

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on December 31, 2025 Explain your No on December 31, 2025 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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