Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑1k 100% Yes No
↑2k 100% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$8.1M Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

Google 70% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+30 more outcomes

$2.6M Vol.
Polymarket

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Anthropic 46% Yes No
Google 40% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$2.5M Vol.
Polymarket

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

December 31 36% Yes No
November 30 24% Yes No

+24 more outcomes

$1.6M Vol.
Polymarket

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

14–16 64% Yes No
17–19 19% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$1.5M Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

December 31, 2027 62% Yes No
June 30, 2027 44% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$1.4M Vol.
Polymarket

New pandemic in 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$1.2M Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

1 47% Yes No
0 31% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$1.2M Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?

October 31 100% Yes No
December 31 100% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$1.2M Vol.
Polymarket

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

December 31, 2027 52% Yes No
December 31, 2026 14% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$865K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$833K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$595K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

<5 60% Yes No
5-6 34% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$525K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

December 31 99% Yes No
October 31 87% Yes No

+12 more outcomes

$524K Vol.
Polymarket

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?

December 31, 2026 39% Yes No
October 31, 2026 1% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$485K Vol.
Polymarket

AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

December 31, 2027 66% Yes No
December 31, 2026 23% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$440K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Plague pandemic in 2026?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$415K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

No 91%
Yes 9%
$351K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

0 77% Yes No
1 12% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$345K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$332K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

No 88%
Yes 12%
$318K Vol.
Polymarket

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

No 82%
Yes 18%
$315K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Which company has the best AI model end of November?

Other 50% Yes No
Company A 50% Yes No

+33 more outcomes

$300K Vol.
Polymarket

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

December 31 92% Yes No
October 31 29% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$295K Vol.
Polymarket