Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑1k 100% Yes No
↑2k 100% Yes No

+8 more outcomes

$7.8M Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Which company has best AI model end of July?

Anthropic 98% Yes No
Google 1% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$7.5M Vol.
Polymarket

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

14–16 47% Yes No
17–19 29% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$1.4M Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

0 72% Yes No
1 20% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$1.2M Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

New pandemic in 2026?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$914K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

December 31 22% Yes No
September 30 10% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$872K Vol.
Polymarket

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

No 98%
Yes 2%
$728K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

GPT-6 released by…?

December 31, 2026 88% Yes No
September 30, 2026 74% Yes No

+8 more outcomes

$665K Vol.
Polymarket

Next Claude Opus released by...?

December 31 99% Yes No
October 31 99% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$610K Vol.
Polymarket

Best Chinese AI Company end of July?

Alibaba 80% Yes No
Moonshot 19% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$605K Vol.
Polymarket

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

No 98%
Yes 2%
$577K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

5-6 57% Yes No
<5 28% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$488K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Anthropic 64% Yes No
Google 10% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$377K Vol.
Polymarket

Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of July?

Anthropic 94% Yes No
Google 3% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$358K Vol.
Polymarket

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

No release by July 31 94% Yes No
July 28 3% Yes No

+30 more outcomes

$348K Vol.
Polymarket

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

No 76%
Yes 24%
$334K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

No 76%
Yes 24%
$311K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

August 31 85% Yes No
August 7 64% Yes No

+14 more outcomes

$264K Vol.
Polymarket

Which company has best AI model end of August?

Anthropic 94% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+30 more outcomes

$259K Vol.
Polymarket

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

No 91%
Yes 9%
$250K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Natural Disaster in 2026?

No 76%
Yes 24%
$227K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Next Claude Opus released on...?

July 24 37% Yes No
No release by July 31 17% Yes No

+16 more outcomes

$221K Vol.
Polymarket

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$178K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech

Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

No 6%
Yes 94%
$147K Vol.
Polymarket Science & Tech