Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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$3.1M Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

Live odds

No 88%

Yes 12%

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Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

170 days left

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Market closes Dec 31, 2026

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Yes Market 12% +88 if correct · −12 if wrong No Market 88% +12 if correct · −88 if wrong

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