World Cup: Golden Ball Winner Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...? World Cup: Nation to Reach Final Fed rate hike in 2026? Russia nuclear test by...? Iran leadership change by...? LCK 2026 Season Winner Next Prime Minister of Sweden NBA: 2027 Champion World Cup Winner Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? F1 Drivers' Champion Trump out as President before 2027? Fed Decision in July? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Bitcoin all time high by ___? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
World Cup: Golden Ball Winner Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election? Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...? World Cup: Nation to Reach Final Fed rate hike in 2026? Russia nuclear test by...? Iran leadership change by...? LCK 2026 Season Winner Next Prime Minister of Sweden NBA: 2027 Champion World Cup Winner Next UK Prime Minister in 2026? Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...? F1 Drivers' Champion Trump out as President before 2027? Fed Decision in July? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Bitcoin all time high by ___? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Open Science & Tech Polymarket

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Top outcomes

5-6 52%
<5 32%
7-8 9%
9-10 4%

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

View on Polymarket
$485K Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

$484.5k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$485K Vol.

5-6

52% market probability

52%

Explain your Yes on 5-6 Explain your No on 5-6 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

<5

32% market probability

32%

Explain your Yes on <5 Explain your No on <5 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

7-8

9% market probability

9%

Explain your Yes on 7-8 Explain your No on 7-8 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

9-10

4% market probability

4%

Explain your Yes on 9-10 Explain your No on 9-10 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

>16

2% market probability

2%

Explain your Yes on >16 Explain your No on >16 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

13-14

1% market probability

1%

Explain your Yes on 13-14 Explain your No on 13-14 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

15-16

1% market probability

1%

Explain your Yes on 15-16 Explain your No on 15-16 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

11-12

1% market probability

1%

Explain your Yes on 11-12 Explain your No on 11-12 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.