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Polymarket
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
Top outcomes
14–16
44%
17–19
37%
11–13
10%
20+
8%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
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$1.4M Vol.
Closes Jan 1, 2027
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$1.4m Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$1.4M Vol.
14–16
44% market probability
44%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 44%
+56 / −44
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 55%
+45 / −55
17–19
37% market probability
37%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 37%
+63 / −37
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 63%
+37 / −63
Explain your Yes on 17–19
Explain your No on 17–19
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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11–13
10% market probability
10%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 10%
+90 / −10
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 90%
+10 / −90
Explain your Yes on 11–13
Explain your No on 11–13
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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20+
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on 20+
Explain your No on 20+
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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0%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on <5
Explain your No on <5
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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5–7
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on 5–7
Explain your No on 5–7
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
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8–10
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on 8–10
Explain your No on 8–10
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
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