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Polymarket
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
Top outcomes
14–16
30%
11–13
30%
17–19
16%
8–10
8%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
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$1.3M Vol.
Closes Dec 31, 2026
Live Polymarket Chart
Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$1.3m Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$1.3M Vol.
14–16
30% market probability
30%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 30%
+70 / −30
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 70%
+30 / −70
11–13
30% market probability
30%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 30%
+70 / −30
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 70%
+30 / −70
Explain your Yes on 11–13
Explain your No on 11–13
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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17–19
16% market probability
16%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 16%
+84 / −16
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 84%
+16 / −84
Explain your Yes on 17–19
Explain your No on 17–19
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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8–10
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on 8–10
Explain your No on 8–10
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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5–7
6% market probability
6%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 94%
+6 / −94
Explain your Yes on 5–7
Explain your No on 5–7
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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20+
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
Explain your Yes on 20+
Explain your No on 20+
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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0%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on <5
Explain your No on <5
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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Public forecast history
All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.
PepeCofi
@PepeCofi
·
1 week, 5 days ago
Verified record
Forecast
8–10
· Polymarket 12%
· +88 /−12
-4 rep if exited now
Liked by TheBagHodler
Pending
Discussion
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