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Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

Top outcomes

December 31, 2027 62%
June 30, 2027 50%
February 28, 2027 32%
January 31, 2027 28%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

$1.4M Vol. Closes Jan 1, 2028

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$1.4m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$1.4M Vol.

December 31, 2027

62% market probability

62%

Explain your Yes on December 31, 2027 Explain your No on December 31, 2027 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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June 30, 2027

50% market probability

50%

Explain your Yes on June 30, 2027 Explain your No on June 30, 2027 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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February 28, 2027

32% market probability

32%

Explain your Yes on February 28, 2027 Explain your No on February 28, 2027 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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January 31, 2027

28% market probability

28%

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0 / 2,000

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December 31, 2026

24% market probability

24%

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0 / 2,000

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June 30

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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September 30, 2026

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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