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Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
Top outcomes
August 31
86%
August 7
63%
July 31
13%
July 29
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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$267K Vol.
Closes Aug 31, 2026
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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
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$266.7k Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$267K Vol.
August 31
86% market probability
86%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 86%
+14 / −86
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 15%
+85 / −15
August 7
63% market probability
63%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 63%
+37 / −63
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 37%
+63 / −37
Explain your Yes on August 7
Explain your No on August 7
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 31
13% market probability
13%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 13%
+87 / −13
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 87%
+13 / −87
Explain your Yes on July 31
Explain your No on July 31
(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 29
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on July 29
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 28
6% market probability
6%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 6%
+94 / −6
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 94%
+6 / −94
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 30
5% market probability
5%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 5%
+95 / −5
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 95%
+5 / −95
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 27
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 24
1% market probability
1%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 1%
+99 / −1
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 99%
+1 / −99
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 3
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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June 5
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 10
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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July 17
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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June 12
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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June 19
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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June 26
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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June 30
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
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(optional)
0 / 2,000
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