Open
Polymarket
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
Top outcomes
December 31
36%
November 30
24%
October 31
8%
October 23
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Read more
Show less
$1.6M Vol.
Closes Jan 1, 2027
Live Polymarket Chart
Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.
Open on Polymarket ↗
The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.
$1.6m Vol.
All outcomes
Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.
$1.6M Vol.
December 31
36% market probability
36%
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
Yes 36%
+64 / −36
$refs['reasoning-0']?.focus())"
>
No 64%
+36 / −64
November 30
24% market probability
24%
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
Yes 24%
+76 / −24
$refs['reasoning-1']?.focus())"
>
No 76%
+24 / −76
Explain your Yes on November 30
Explain your No on November 30
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
October 31
8% market probability
8%
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
Yes 8%
+92 / −8
$refs['reasoning-2']?.focus())"
>
No 92%
+8 / −92
Explain your Yes on October 31
Explain your No on October 31
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
October 23
4% market probability
4%
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
Yes 4%
+96 / −4
$refs['reasoning-3']?.focus())"
>
No 96%
+4 / −96
Explain your Yes on October 23
Explain your No on October 23
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
July 3
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-4']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on July 3
Explain your No on July 3
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
June 5
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-5']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on June 5
Explain your No on June 5
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
July 10
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-6']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on July 10
Explain your No on July 10
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
July 17
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-7']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on July 17
Explain your No on July 17
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
July 24
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-8']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on July 24
Explain your No on July 24
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
July 27
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-9']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on July 27
Explain your No on July 27
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
July 28
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-10']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on July 28
Explain your No on July 28
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
July 29
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-11']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on July 29
Explain your No on July 29
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
July 30
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-12']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on July 30
Explain your No on July 30
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
July 31
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-13']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on July 31
Explain your No on July 31
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
June 12
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-14']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on June 12
Explain your No on June 12
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
June 19
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-15']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on June 19
Explain your No on June 19
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
June 26
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-16']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on June 26
Explain your No on June 26
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
June 30
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-17']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on June 30
Explain your No on June 30
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
August 7
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-18']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on August 7
Explain your No on August 7
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
August 14
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-19']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on August 14
Explain your No on August 14
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
August 21
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-20']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on August 21
Explain your No on August 21
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
August 31
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-21']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on August 31
Explain your No on August 31
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
October 9
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-22']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on October 9
Explain your No on October 9
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
October 15
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-23']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on October 15
Explain your No on October 15
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
September 15
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-24']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on September 15
Explain your No on September 15
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
September 30
0% market probability
0%
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
Yes 0%
+100 / −0
$refs['reasoning-25']?.focus())"
>
No 100%
+0 / −100
Explain your Yes on September 30
Explain your No on September 30
(optional)
0 / 2,000
Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.
Post forecast
Cancel
Public forecast history
All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.
No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.