Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 31 8% Yes No
October 31 1% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$76.1M Vol.
Polymarket World

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

July 18 100% Yes No
July 20 100% Yes No

+27 more outcomes

$35.5M Vol.
Polymarket World

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

December 31 4% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$22.2M Vol.
Polymarket World

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 31 12% Yes No
November 30 6% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$20.0M Vol.
Polymarket World

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$14.9M Vol.
Polymarket World

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

May 31 0% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$12.2M Vol.
Polymarket World

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

December 31, 2027 34% Yes No
June 30, 2027 26% Yes No

+8 more outcomes

$8.5M Vol.
Polymarket World

US military action against Cuba by...?

December 31 11% Yes No
March 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$7.6M Vol.
Polymarket World

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 31 20% Yes No
October 31 4% Yes No

+12 more outcomes

$7.4M Vol.
Polymarket World

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

December 31 7% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$4.1M Vol.
Polymarket World

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 31 16% Yes No
October 31 7% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$3.5M Vol.
Polymarket World

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$3.5M Vol.
Polymarket World

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 31 32% Yes No
November 30 24% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$3.1M Vol.
Polymarket World

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 31 10% Yes No
October 31 1% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$2.4M Vol.
Polymarket World

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

December 31, 2026 6% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$2.2M Vol.
Polymarket World

Iran coup attempt by...?

December 31, 2027 28% Yes No
December 31, 2026 11% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$2.1M Vol.
Polymarket World

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 31 32% Yes No
November 30 22% Yes No

+8 more outcomes

$2.0M Vol.
Polymarket World

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

December 31 6% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$1.9M Vol.
Polymarket World

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

No 88%
Yes 12%
$1.8M Vol.
Polymarket World

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

December 31 8% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$1.8M Vol.
Polymarket World

How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

8 57% Yes No
9 32% Yes No

+14 more outcomes

$1.7M Vol.
Polymarket World

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Dopropillia 100% Yes No
Druzkhivka 33% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$1.7M Vol.
Polymarket World

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

No 95%
Yes 5%
$1.4M Vol.
Polymarket World

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

December 31 7% Yes No
October 31 1% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$1.1M Vol.
Polymarket World