Open Polymarket

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Top outcomes

Dopropillia 61%
Druzkhivka 26%
Sloviansk 22%
Kramatorsk 16%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of [the specified city or settlement] () by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

$520K Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

$520.2k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$520K Vol.

Dopropillia

61% market probability

61%

Explain your Yes on Dopropillia Explain your No on Dopropillia (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Druzkhivka

26% market probability

26%

Explain your Yes on Druzkhivka Explain your No on Druzkhivka (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Sloviansk

22% market probability

22%

Explain your Yes on Sloviansk Explain your No on Sloviansk (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Kramatorsk

16% market probability

16%

Explain your Yes on Kramatorsk Explain your No on Kramatorsk (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Sumy

8% market probability

8%

Explain your Yes on Sumy Explain your No on Sumy (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Kherson

8% market probability

8%

Explain your Yes on Kherson Explain your No on Kherson (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Kharkiv

5% market probability

5%

Explain your Yes on Kharkiv Explain your No on Kharkiv (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Zaporizhia

4% market probability

4%

Explain your Yes on Zaporizhia Explain your No on Zaporizhia (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.