Open World Polymarket

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

Top outcomes

December 31 30%
November 30 22%
October 31 8%
August 12 0%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

$3.1M Vol. Closes Jan 1, 2027

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

$3.1m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$3.1M Vol.

December 31

30% market probability

30%

Explain your Yes on December 31 Explain your No on December 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

November 30

22% market probability

22%

Explain your Yes on November 30 Explain your No on November 30 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

October 31

8% market probability

8%

Explain your Yes on October 31 Explain your No on October 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

August 12

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on August 12 Explain your No on August 12 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

August 15

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on August 15 Explain your No on August 15 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

August 22

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on August 22 Explain your No on August 22 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

August 31

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on August 31 Explain your No on August 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

September 7

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on September 7 Explain your No on September 7 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

September 14

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on September 14 Explain your No on September 14 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

September 21

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on September 21 Explain your No on September 21 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

September 30

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on September 30 Explain your No on September 30 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.