Open World Polymarket

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

Top outcomes

December 31 70%
October 31 60%
August 31 48%
July 31 18%

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

$1.0M Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

Live Polymarket Chart

Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

Open on Polymarket ↗

The chart is view-only. Use Open on Polymarket above to visit the market — no trading on this platform.

$1.0m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$1.0M Vol.

December 31

70% market probability

70%

Explain your Yes on December 31 Explain your No on December 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

October 31

60% market probability

60%

Explain your Yes on October 31 Explain your No on October 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

August 31

48% market probability

48%

Explain your Yes on August 31 Explain your No on August 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

July 31

18% market probability

18%

Explain your Yes on July 31 Explain your No on July 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

July 15

5% market probability

5%

Explain your Yes on July 15 Explain your No on July 15 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.