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Russia nuclear test by...? Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? MLS Cup Winner 2026 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Next French Presidential Election US military action against Cuba by...? Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Los Angeles Mayoral Election Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? When will Bitcoin hit $150k? Highest grossing movie in 2026? UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
Open Polymarket

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

Top outcomes

↑ 1500 100%
↑ 1510 100%
↑ 1520 100%
↑ 1530 100%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

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$224K Vol. Closes Jan 1, 2027

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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$224.1k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$224K Vol.

↑ 1500

100% market probability

100%

Explain your Yes on ↑ 1500 Explain your No on ↑ 1500 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

↑ 1510

100% market probability

100%

Explain your Yes on ↑ 1510 Explain your No on ↑ 1510 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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↑ 1520

100% market probability

100%

Explain your Yes on ↑ 1520 Explain your No on ↑ 1520 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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↑ 1530

100% market probability

100%

Explain your Yes on ↑ 1530 Explain your No on ↑ 1530 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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↑ 1540

46% market probability

46%

Explain your Yes on ↑ 1540 Explain your No on ↑ 1540 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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↑ 1550

28% market probability

28%

Explain your Yes on ↑ 1550 Explain your No on ↑ 1550 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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↑ 1600

9% market probability

9%

Explain your Yes on ↑ 1600 Explain your No on ↑ 1600 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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↑ 1650

4% market probability

4%

Explain your Yes on ↑ 1650 Explain your No on ↑ 1650 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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↑ 1700

4% market probability

4%

Explain your Yes on ↑ 1700 Explain your No on ↑ 1700 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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Public forecast history

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