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Anthropic lab leak by...?

Top outcomes

June 30, 2027 6%
December 31, 2026 2%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required. Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

$156K Vol. Closes Jul 1, 2027

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$156.1k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$156K Vol.

June 30, 2027

6% market probability

6%

Explain your Yes on June 30, 2027 Explain your No on June 30, 2027 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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December 31, 2026

2% market probability

2%

Explain your Yes on December 31, 2026 Explain your No on December 31, 2026 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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