Open Science & Tech Polymarket

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

$138K Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

Live odds

No 86%
Yes 14%

Live Polymarket Chart

Open on Polymarket ↗

Place a forecast

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

170 days left

Pick your outcome below. Live Polymarket odds are captured when you submit. Share the argument behind your pick, then post your forecast.

Market closes Dec 31, 2026

Your forecast

Reputation at stake based on current Polymarket odds.

Your pick

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

Public forecast history

All forecasts on this market — scored on Reputation when resolved. Earn Popularity when others like your forecast or comments.

No forecasts yet. Be the first to place one.