Open World Polymarket

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Top outcomes

October 5 100%
October 7 100%
October 9 100%
October 12 100%

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

$13.9M Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

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$13.9m Vol.

All outcomes

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$13.9M Vol.

October 5

100% market probability

100%

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0 / 2,000

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October 7

100% market probability

100%

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0 / 2,000

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October 9

100% market probability

100%

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0 / 2,000

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October 12

100% market probability

100%

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0 / 2,000

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October 15

100% market probability

100%

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0 / 2,000

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September 20

100% market probability

100%

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0 / 2,000

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September 25

100% market probability

100%

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0 / 2,000

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September 30

100% market probability

100%

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0 / 2,000

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October 16

99% market probability

99%

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0 / 2,000

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October 17

97% market probability

97%

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0 / 2,000

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October 18

97% market probability

97%

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0 / 2,000

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October 22

92% market probability

92%

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0 / 2,000

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October 24

88% market probability

88%

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0 / 2,000

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October 28

83% market probability

83%

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0 / 2,000

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October 31

82% market probability

82%

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0 / 2,000

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November 8

65% market probability

65%

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0 / 2,000

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November 15

54% market probability

54%

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0 / 2,000

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November 22

44% market probability

44%

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0 / 2,000

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November 30

39% market probability

39%

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0 / 2,000

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December 31

32% market probability

32%

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0 / 2,000

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Public forecast history

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