Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

No 88%
Yes 12%
$1.5M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner

Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) 99% Yes No
Sweden Democrats (SD) 1% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$1.5M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$1.4M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will any country leave NATO by...?

December 31, 2026 2% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$1.4M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Pam Bondi 100% Yes No
Dan Bongino 100% Yes No

+19 more outcomes

$1.4M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Greece x Turkey military engagement by...?

December 31 5% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$1.3M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Iran Nuke before 2027?

No 96%
Yes 4%
$1.3M Vol.
Polymarket World

Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?

Paramount 77% Yes No
None by June 30, 2027 22% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$1.3M Vol.
Polymarket

Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$1.2M Vol.
Polymarket World

Alaska Governor Election Winner

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 54% Yes No
Bernadette Wilson 36% Yes No

+20 more outcomes

$1.2M Vol.
Polymarket

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D) 70% Yes No
Susan Collins (R) 30% Yes No
$1.2M Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?

December 31 2% Yes No
September 30 2% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$1.2M Vol.
Polymarket World

Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

December 31 11% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$1.2M Vol.
Polymarket World

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$1.1M Vol.
Polymarket World

French election called by...?

December 31, 2026 5% Yes No
October 10 0% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$1.1M Vol.
Polymarket

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

Gavin Newsom 12% Yes No
Rahm Emanuel 10% Yes No

+69 more outcomes

$1.1M Vol.
Polymarket

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

December 31 28% Yes No
September 30 4% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$1.0M Vol.
Polymarket World

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

No 98%
Yes 2%
$1.0M Vol.
Polymarket

India strike on Pakistan by...?

December 31, 2026 16% Yes No
October 31 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$991K Vol.
Polymarket World

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D) 50% Yes No
Ken Paxton (R) 48% Yes No
$979K Vol.
Polymarket

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Xi Jinping 100% Yes No
Javier Milei 100% Yes No

+24 more outcomes

$975K Vol.
Polymarket World

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 31 4% Yes No
July 17 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$973K Vol.
Polymarket World

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?

December 31 3% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$955K Vol.
Polymarket World

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

December 31, 2026 8% Yes No
December 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$942K Vol.
Polymarket World