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Open World Polymarket

Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

Top outcomes

March 31 22%
December 31 5%
October 31 2%
July 31 0%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

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$1.4M Vol. Closes Apr 1, 2027

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$1.4m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$1.4M Vol.

March 31

22% market probability

22%

Explain your Yes on March 31 Explain your No on March 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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December 31

5% market probability

5%

Explain your Yes on December 31 Explain your No on December 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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October 31

2% market probability

2%

Explain your Yes on October 31 Explain your No on October 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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July 31

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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June 15

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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June 30

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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August 31

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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September 30

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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