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Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

Top outcomes

December 31 66%
July 31 30%
June 30 4%
June 15 0%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

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$296K Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

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$296.4k Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$296K Vol.

December 31

66% market probability

66%

Explain your Yes on December 31 Explain your No on December 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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July 31

30% market probability

30%

Explain your Yes on July 31 Explain your No on July 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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June 30

4% market probability

4%

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0 / 2,000

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June 15

0% market probability

0%

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0 / 2,000

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