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Will any country leave NATO by...?

Top outcomes

December 31, 2026 5%
June 30, 2026 1%
December 31, 2025 0%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

$1.1M Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

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$1.1m Vol.

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Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$1.1M Vol.

December 31, 2026

5% market probability

5%

Explain your Yes on December 31, 2026 Explain your No on December 31, 2026 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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June 30, 2026

1% market probability

1%

Explain your Yes on June 30, 2026 Explain your No on June 30, 2026 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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December 31, 2025

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on December 31, 2025 Explain your No on December 31, 2025 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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