Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an 62% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+28 more outcomes

$1.2M Vol.
Polymarket

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 2027 56% Yes No
Netanyahu - Israel PM 28% Yes No

+20 more outcomes

$1.2M Vol.
Polymarket World

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

December 31 12% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$1.1M Vol.
Polymarket World

French election called by...?

December 31, 2026 6% Yes No
October 10 0% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$1.1M Vol.
Polymarket

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

No Hormuz Agreement 91% Yes No
Hormuz Agreement; D Senate 5% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$1.1M Vol.
Polymarket World

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar 68% Yes No
Likud 32% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$1.0M Vol.
Polymarket

India strike on Pakistan by...?

December 31, 2026 11% Yes No
October 31 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$997K Vol.
Polymarket World

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 31 4% Yes No
July 17 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$995K Vol.
Polymarket World

Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?

December 31 27% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$992K Vol.
Polymarket World

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?

June 30, 2027 7% Yes No
December 31 1% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$968K Vol.
Polymarket World

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Javier Milei 48% Yes No
Axel Kicillof 30% Yes No

+17 more outcomes

$962K Vol.
Polymarket

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

December 31, 2026 10% Yes No
December 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$945K Vol.
Polymarket World

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time 58% Yes No
60+ 24% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$924K Vol.
Polymarket World

Kansas Senate Election Winner

Roger Marshall (R) 62% Yes No
Adam Hamilton (D) 38% Yes No
$918K Vol.
Polymarket

Iowa Senate Election Winner

Ashley Hinson (R) 58% Yes No
Josh Turek (D) 42% Yes No
$912K Vol.
Polymarket

Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?

December 31 97% Yes No
October 31 97% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$904K Vol.
Polymarket

Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

December 31 8% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$873K Vol.
Polymarket World

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

December 31, 2026 6% Yes No
August 31, 2026 0% Yes No
$869K Vol.
Polymarket

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

January 31, 2027 67% Yes No
January 15, 2027 40% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$866K Vol.
Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

No 94%
Yes 6%
$866K Vol.
Polymarket

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

No 95%
Yes 5%
$852K Vol.
Polymarket

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

No 17%
Yes 83%
$847K Vol.
Polymarket

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?

December 31 3% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$825K Vol.
Polymarket World

Weed rescheduled by...?

December 31 8% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$820K Vol.
Polymarket Pop Culture