Open Politics Polymarket

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

Top outcomes

December 31 52%
June 30 8%
March 31 0%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

$1.7M Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

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$1.7m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$1.7M Vol.

December 31

52% market probability

52%

Explain your Yes on December 31 Explain your No on December 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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June 30

8% market probability

8%

Explain your Yes on June 30 Explain your No on June 30 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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March 31

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on March 31 Explain your No on March 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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Public forecast history

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