Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 2027 42% Yes No
June 30, 2027 32% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$2.9M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

December 31 13% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$2.9M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

No 93%
Yes 7%
$2.9M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$2.8M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?

December 31 4% Yes No
January 9 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$2.7M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

December 31, 2026 2% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$2.7M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

No 99%
Yes 1%
$2.6M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will Tim Walz resign by...?

December 31 3% Yes No
July 31 0% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$2.6M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Other 50% Yes No
Flávio Bolsonaro <4% 40% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$2.5M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Ukraine election held by...?

December 31, 2026 4% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$2.5M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Democratic 64% Yes No
Republican 34% Yes No
$2.5M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D) 60% Yes No
Susan Collins (R) 40% Yes No
$2.3M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?

December 31 10% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+5 more outcomes

$2.3M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

December 31 8% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$2.3M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

US strike on Colombia by...?

December 31 20% Yes No
March 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$2.3M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Macron out by...?

December 31, 2026 4% Yes No
July 31, 2026 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$2.2M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will Alberta join the US?

No 98%
Yes 2%
$2.2M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

December 31 2% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$2.1M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 9 100% Yes No
October 12 100% Yes No

+8 more outcomes

$2.1M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 2027 56% Yes No
March 31, 2027 37% Yes No

+7 more outcomes

$2.0M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

No 92%
Yes 8%
$2.0M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo 82% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+56 more outcomes

$1.9M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China 76% Yes No
No meeting by December 31 18% Yes No

+13 more outcomes

$1.9M Vol.
Polymarket Politics

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D) 70% Yes No
Mike Rogers (R) 30% Yes No
$1.9M Vol.
Polymarket Politics