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US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion Iran leadership change by...? NBA: 2027 Champion Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...? Pro Football: 2027 Champion How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026? Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion Epstein client list released by...? Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Next Prime Minister of Romania? Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? MLB: 2026 American League Champion What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Open Politics Polymarket

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

Top outcomes

December 31, 2027 39%
June 30, 2027 34%
March 31, 2027 18%
December 31, 2026 4%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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$2.9M Vol. Closes Jan 1, 2028

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Top outcomes by win probability — price history from Polymarket, updates when you refresh.

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$2.9m Vol.

All outcomes

Pick Yes or No on any outcome, then explain your pick below. Reputation-only — no money or trading.

$2.9M Vol.

December 31, 2027

39% market probability

39%

Explain your Yes on December 31, 2027 Explain your No on December 31, 2027 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

June 30, 2027

34% market probability

34%

Explain your Yes on June 30, 2027 Explain your No on June 30, 2027 (optional)

0 / 2,000

Share the argument behind your pick — visible in the public forecast feed.

March 31, 2027

18% market probability

18%

Explain your Yes on March 31, 2027 Explain your No on March 31, 2027 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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December 31, 2026

4% market probability

4%

Explain your Yes on December 31, 2026 Explain your No on December 31, 2026 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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November 30, 2026

4% market probability

4%

Explain your Yes on November 30, 2026 Explain your No on November 30, 2026 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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October 31, 2026

1% market probability

1%

Explain your Yes on October 31, 2026 Explain your No on October 31, 2026 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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September 30, 2026

0% market probability

0%

Explain your Yes on September 30, 2026 Explain your No on September 30, 2026 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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Public forecast history

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