Markets

All markets

Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

December 31, 2026 22% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No
$547K Vol.
Polymarket

Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?

December 31 10% Yes No
September 30 3% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$521K Vol.
Polymarket

US military draft authorized in 2026?

No 95%
Yes 5%
$514K Vol.
Polymarket

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

No 91%
Yes 9%
$501K Vol.
Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

No 78%
Yes 22%
$488K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?

December 31 7% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$477K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...?

July 31 6% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+3 more outcomes

$471K Vol.
Polymarket

EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?

December 31 10% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$461K Vol.
Polymarket

Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner

Mike Lindell 53% Yes No
Lisa Demuth 44% Yes No

+8 more outcomes

$455K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?

December 31 8% Yes No
June 30 0% Yes No
$449K Vol.
Polymarket

Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner

Mike Mazzei 82% Yes No
Genter Drummond 13% Yes No

+6 more outcomes

$432K Vol.
Polymarket

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

No 97%
Yes 3%
$424K Vol.
Polymarket

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?

December 31, 2026 10% Yes No
June 30, 2026 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$416K Vol.
Polymarket

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by...?

July 31 7% Yes No
May 31 0% Yes No

+1 more outcome

$407K Vol.
Polymarket

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

July 1 100% Yes No
July 2 100% Yes No

+29 more outcomes

$392K Vol.
Polymarket Pop Culture

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

No 90%
Yes 10%
$390K Vol.
Polymarket

Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by...?

December 31 100% Yes No
July 31 41% Yes No

+2 more outcomes

$389K Vol.
Polymarket

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Dilution of Iran's Uranium 32% Yes No
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) 30% Yes No

+4 more outcomes

$378K Vol.
Polymarket

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Daniel Penny 40% Yes No
Donald Brodie 38% Yes No

+26 more outcomes

$375K Vol.
Polymarket

South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner

Darline Graham Nordone 70% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+48 more outcomes

$367K Vol.
Polymarket

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

No 88%
Yes 12%
$366K Vol.
Polymarket

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Javier Milei 48% Yes No
Axel Kicillof 46% Yes No

+9 more outcomes

$365K Vol.
Polymarket

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

India 23% Yes No
South Korea 20% Yes No

+15 more outcomes

$358K Vol.
Polymarket

Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner

Bev Craig 98% Yes No
Other 50% Yes No

+49 more outcomes

$345K Vol.
Polymarket