Markets
All markets
Forecast on real-world events — odds from Polymarket, no betting.
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?
December 31, 2026
22%
Yes
No
June 30, 2026
0%
Yes
No
$547K Vol.
Polymarket
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?
December 31
10%
Yes
No
September 30
3%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$521K Vol.
Polymarket
US military draft authorized in 2026?
No
95%
Yes
5%
$514K Vol.
Polymarket
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
No
91%
Yes
9%
$501K Vol.
Polymarket
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
No
78%
Yes
22%
$488K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?
December 31
7%
Yes
No
June 30
0%
Yes
No
$477K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...?
July 31
6%
Yes
No
May 31
0%
Yes
No
+3 more outcomes
$471K Vol.
Polymarket
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?
December 31
10%
Yes
No
June 30
0%
Yes
No
$461K Vol.
Polymarket
Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike Lindell
53%
Yes
No
Lisa Demuth
44%
Yes
No
+8 more outcomes
$455K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?
December 31
8%
Yes
No
June 30
0%
Yes
No
$449K Vol.
Polymarket
Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike Mazzei
82%
Yes
No
Genter Drummond
13%
Yes
No
+6 more outcomes
$432K Vol.
Polymarket
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
No
97%
Yes
3%
$424K Vol.
Polymarket
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?
December 31, 2026
10%
Yes
No
June 30, 2026
0%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$416K Vol.
Polymarket
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by...?
July 31
7%
Yes
No
May 31
0%
Yes
No
+1 more outcome
$407K Vol.
Polymarket
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
July 1
100%
Yes
No
July 2
100%
Yes
No
+29 more outcomes
$392K Vol.
Polymarket
Pop Culture
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
No
90%
Yes
10%
$390K Vol.
Polymarket
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by...?
December 31
100%
Yes
No
July 31
41%
Yes
No
+2 more outcomes
$389K Vol.
Polymarket
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Dilution of Iran's Uranium
32%
Yes
No
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)
30%
Yes
No
+4 more outcomes
$378K Vol.
Polymarket
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Daniel Penny
40%
Yes
No
Donald Brodie
38%
Yes
No
+26 more outcomes
$375K Vol.
Polymarket
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham Nordone
70%
Yes
No
Other
50%
Yes
No
+48 more outcomes
$367K Vol.
Polymarket
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
No
88%
Yes
12%
$366K Vol.
Polymarket
Argentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier Milei
48%
Yes
No
Axel Kicillof
46%
Yes
No
+9 more outcomes
$365K Vol.
Polymarket
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
India
23%
Yes
No
South Korea
20%
Yes
No
+15 more outcomes
$358K Vol.
Polymarket
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner
Bev Craig
98%
Yes
No
Other
50%
Yes
No
+49 more outcomes
$345K Vol.
Polymarket
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