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IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

Top outcomes

December 31 25%
October 31 14%
August 31 7%
July 31 2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.

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$173K Vol. Closes Dec 31, 2026

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$172.8k Vol.

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$173K Vol.

December 31

25% market probability

25%

Explain your Yes on December 31 Explain your No on December 31 (optional)

0 / 2,000

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October 31

14% market probability

14%

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0 / 2,000

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August 31

7% market probability

7%

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0 / 2,000

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July 31

2% market probability

2%

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0 / 2,000

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